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Where the answers come from
The prior is hierarchical: it tries the finest cell first — lead time × availability × movement × room size — then drops room size, then movement, then answers on lead time alone, then falls back to the 13.9% base rate. Under the 2026 fit every room-size cell exists, so a row below that level means the state itself was never scored, not that the sample was thin: thin cells are shrunk toward their parent rather than discarded, and report a low confidence instead of disappearing.
Going fast
Next 7 days, one row per show — its most at-risk upcoming performance.| Show | Performance | Venue | Avail | Model | Radar pace | Δ | Confidence | Answered by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Recently gone
From the sellout ledger — observed crossings, not predictions.| Show | Performance | Sold out at | Lead time |
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