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Where the answers come from
The prior is hierarchical: it tries the full cell first, then drops the movement dimension, then answers on lead time alone, then falls back to the 14.3% base rate. Anything below “full cell” means the 2025 sample had too few independent outcomes in that bucket to answer specifically.
Going fast
Next 7 days, one row per show — its most at-risk upcoming performance.| Show | Performance | Venue | Avail | Model | Radar pace | Δ | Confidence | Answered by |
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Recently gone
From the sellout ledger — observed crossings, not predictions.| Show | Performance | Sold out at | Lead time |
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