Sellout Model

Experimental. Probability a performance sells out, scored against 2025 outcomes.

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This page is a staging surface, not a booking signal. The probabilities come from a frequency table fit on 2025 outcomes: hours-to-showtime × remaining availability × recent movement, tilted by venue and time-slot reputation. It has never been shown to users and has not been validated against 2026 outcomes. The “Radar pace” column is the estimate the live site already uses, shown for contrast — where the two disagree is the interesting part.
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Where the answers come from

The prior is hierarchical: it tries the full cell first, then drops the movement dimension, then answers on lead time alone, then falls back to the 14.3% base rate. Anything below “full cell” means the 2025 sample had too few independent outcomes in that bucket to answer specifically.

Going fast

Next 7 days, one row per show — its most at-risk upcoming performance.
Show Performance Venue Avail Model Radar pace Δ Confidence Answered by
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Recently gone

From the sellout ledger — observed crossings, not predictions.
Show Performance Sold out at Lead time
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Known limits

    Ed Fringe Guide is an unofficial, fan-made guide. Not affiliated with the Edinburgh Festival Fringe Society or edfringe.com.